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  • Writer's pictureFederico Nutarelli

COVID and International Export Probability using Machine Learning

Updated: Jan 20, 2022

How did COVID-19 impact on the probability of exporting of firms?

COVID-19 impacted our everyday life and continues to do so. The pandemic hit so hard that Econometrics itself was involved. Indeed, any counterfactual analysis seems impossible as COVID-19 had a "vertical" impact on every individual. Thus, the construction of a "control group" is very difficult, not allowing for any causal inference...or maybe not?

Machine Learning can help uncovering apparently hidden patterns and constructing a counterfactual for firms in the pandemic!

The idea

The main idea is to create a Shock Unaware Machine (#SUM) based on 2018-2019 firm's export data and a Shock Aware Machine (#SAM), alias "COVID-19 aware". By comparing the difference of the two, we are able to detect the effect of COVID-19.

Where do I find out more?

The paper is ongoing

Stay tuned for news as it we are almost ready with final refinements! If you cannot wait check out our #ASSA2022 poster below:

ASSA_22_Poster_VOG (1)
Download PDF • 187KB

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